Beancounters working for analyst outfit Gartner say that global shipments are pretty pants at the moment but it is hoping that 5G could turn things around
Global shipments of smartphones are set to decline by 3.2 percent in 2019, the latest report from Gartner predicts, leaving the category facing its worst decline to date.
With more than five billion mobile phones currently being in use around the world, the market has reached a tipping point, the research firm says, as the “limited attraction of new technology” means consumers are holding on to their devices beyond the typical two-year time frame.
Gartner senior research director Ranjit Atwal said: “Unless the devices provide significant new utility, efficiency or experiences, users do not necessarily want to upgrade their phones.”
However, the rise of 5G-capable smartphones is expected to turn the category’s fortunes around in the coming years, as mobile providers look to the technology to boost sales.
According to Gartner, the section is set to increase from a 10 percent share of the market in 2020 to 56 percent by 2023 – although less than half of communications service providers (CSPs) globally will have launched a commercial 5G network in the coming five years.
“To ensure smartphone sales pick up again, mobile providers are starting to emphasize 5G performance features, like faster speeds, improved network availability and enhanced security. As soon as providers better align their early performance claims for 5G with concrete plans, we expect to see 5G phones account for more than half of phone sales in 2023. As a result of the impact of 5G, the smartphone market is expected to return to growth at 2.9 percent in 2020.”
Gartner’s recent IoT forecast showed that 5G will affect other devices, with the 5G installed base set to grow from 3.5 million units to 48.6 million units between 2020 and 2023. By 2028, that figure will rise to 324.1 million units, although 5G will make up just 2.1 percent of the overall Internet of Things endpoints.
