Analyst outfit Gartner expects shipments of PCs, tablets and mobile phones to hit 2.21 billion units in 2019.
However this will mean a 0.6 percent decline for the PC market to 258 million units this year. Traditional PCs are predicted to sell three percent in 2019 to 189 million units.
Big G research director Ranjit Atwal said that consumers were increasingly retiring their PCs but not replacing them, with shipments down by another 2.5 million units in 2019.
“For businesses, the Windows 10 migration continues into the next phase. While the US is now in the final phase, China – having delayed their migration – still has a few years to go. By moving the Windows 10 migration to 2020, organisations increase the risk of remaining on an unsupported operating system. Windows 7 support is scheduled to end in January 2020.”
Big G’s crystal ball predicted that Windows 10 will represent 75 percent of the professional PC market in the next two years.
Though shipments of mobile phones are set to witness a 0.5 percent decline to just under two billion units this year, it is projected to see a return to form next year with a 1.2 percent increase.
Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner, stated: “Users have reached a threshold for new technology and applications, which means that unless new models provide significant new utility, efficiency or experiences, users don’t want or need to upgrade.”
The analyst warned vendors to recognise that consumers are extending the lifetime of their phones, predicting average lifetime to increase from 2.6 years to 2.8 years through 2023.
Gartner estimated that foldable phones could shift 30 million units by 2023, accounting for five percent of the high-end phone market.
“Through the next five years, we expect foldable phones to remain a niche product due to several manufacturing challenges”, said Cozza.
“In addition to the surface of the screen, the price is a barrier despite we expect that to decline with time. Currently priced at $2,000, foldable phones present too many trade-offs, even for many early technology adopters.”
The analyst expects vendors to experiment with foldable phone form factors in order to understand optimal usability patterns and user preferences.
“A key consideration for product managers is to place usability at the core of their product development, ensuring the user experience is continuous and seamless across all foldable screens”, said Cozza.
