Black Friday is going to flop

Consumer tech is not expected to see a Black Friday surge this year, according to market watcher Context.

Its predictions are based on analysis of distribution volumes into retailers and etailers over a six-week period at the start of the fourth quarter.

Adam Simon, global MD at Context, said most vendors prepare for this event in advance by ensuring most of their shipments to retailers and distributors are mostly complete by the end of week 39.

“So distribution volumes into retail/e-tail after this time are a good indicator of consumer demand. Overall we’re not seeing any major year-on-year volume sales increases in notebooks. And if there is growth in sell-out compared to 2017, it could mean a weaker December.”

In the UK market, volumes through distribution are down 11 percent in 2017, and down 35 percent compared to 2016’s figure.

Context said that consumers are getting more cynical about Black Friday as having any real value to them – particularly in Europe. Germany also predicted to see an 11 percent decline on volumes through distribution, and France expected to see distribution volumes down 23 percent on the same period last year.