Tag: pc shipments

EMEA PC shipments down 16% in Q3

european-commissionPC shipments in EMEA declined 16 percent in Q3 2014, hitting a grand total of just 21.4 million units. What’s more, research firm IDC reports notebook shipments dropped 20.6 percent, while desktops weathered the storm with a 7 percent plunge. This is understandable because desktops can’t be cannibalized by tablets, so sales of workstations and gaming desktops are still relatively stable.

However, there are some encouraging signs. Although the market contracted, the drop wasn’t as bad as last quarter and there are some signs of recovery.

“The third quarter marked a change in the overall market trend,” said Chrystelle Labesque, EMEA research manager. “While it is too early to talk about recovery, the worse seems to have been reached in the second quarter of 2013. However, the ramp-up is mainly in the commercial area, with September performance above expectations for most players.”

Labesque added that the end of Windows XP support in 2014 is already driving IT departments to focus on hardware refresh, generating higher renewal in the corporate space.

Shipments in Western Europe were down 13.2 percent year-on-year. The back-to-school period didn’t help much, as demand remained soft, which can also be attributed to the late rollout of Windows 8.1, at least to some extent.

IDC believes new form factors like convertibles based on Intel’s new SoCs could drive demand in the fourth quarter and the introduction of Bay Trail and Windows 8.1 products might be the reason shipments were slow in Q3, as nobody wanted to end the quarter with practically outdated inventory.

Interestingly, Central and Eastern Europe did even worse than the Middle East and Africa, with a decline of 22.2 percent. MEA dropped just 14.5 percent.

As far as vendors go, Lenovo is continuing to outperform the competition. It ended the quarter with a 15 percent share of the market, up from 10.7 percent in the second quarter. HP also gained share, and it’s still the leader with 21 percent, up from 18.2 percent. Acer and Asus continued to bleed, losing almost a fifth of their share in the process.

PC and tablet shipments to hit 493m this year

pc-sales-slumpCombined worldwide shipments of tablets and PCs are expected to hit 493.1 million units, according to research from Canalys. The firm is expecting seven percent growth, but it will come from tablets rather than PCs.

Tablets are forecast to account for 37 percent of the market, up from 25 percent last year.

By 2017, unit shipments should reach 713.8 million, but only a quarter of them will be laptops, while tablets should make up 64 percent of all shipments.

The tablet market is booming. It more than doubled in the first quarter of the year, while at the same time desktop and laptop shipments took a double-digit plunge. Tablet shipments in 2013 should hit 182.5 million units and by the end of the year they should outpace laptops.

Competition should heat up over the next few quarters, with traditional PC vendors vying for a piece of the lucrative tablet market. Windows 8.1 tablets are expected to start making their mark later this year, but they might not have what it takes to stand up to Android and iOS gear in the low end. Therefore many outfits are turning to Android tablets, including Acer, Asus, Lenovo and HP. However, the trouble with cheap Android tablets is that they’re not good money makers.

“Shipment numbers can be high but absolute margins on these products are expected to be small. Low-price tablets will not be lucrative but it is necessary to compete or a vendor will simply lose relevance and scale. In fact, accessories, particularly cases, as well as the new generation of high-tech app-enabled accessories will likely provide higher margins than the products themselves,” said Pin-Chen Tang, research analyst at Canalys. “This new influx of Android devices will provide a boost to the platform and Canalys therefore expects Android to take a 45% share in 2013, behind Apple at 49%. The iPad mini is expected to continue selling well, becoming more significant in terms of the product mix and spawning a further increase in consumer demand for smaller tablets.’

The other big unknown is Intel’s 2-in-1 convertible push. They should also start appearing later this year and vendors have already shown off some designs, but many are not convinced that they will do well. The first generation isn’t very impressive. They require pricey and relatively hot x86 chips, so they end up a bit bulkier than ARM-based tablets. In addition, Windows 8.x is still an unproven OS in the tablet space and it’s more bloated than Android or iOS.

“These convertible products have disappointed so far. Convertibles are too heavy in tablet form and too expensive when compared with clamshell product,” said the company. Canalys therefore expects that, for at least the next 18 months, consumers will buy separate products, rather than compromise on a Windows 8 convertible or hybrid PC. Even for Android products, alternative form factors are not expected to grow rapidly due to the category being sandwiched between low-priced slates and more familiar Windows-based clamshell notebooks,” said Canalys analyst James Wang.

Asustek blames Win8 for poor sales

asus-buildingAsustek has cut its Q2 forecast for notebook and tablet shipments and unsurprisingly it is blaming soft demand for Windows 8 for its woes.

The company now expects its second-quarter notebook shipments to fall 10 percent sequentially to 4.23 million units. Back in May the Taiwanese outfit said it hopes to ship 4.8 million notebooks in the second quarter.

Surprisingly tablet shipments were also revised downward by 10 percent to 2.7 million units. Since Asus is moaning about Windows and it is expected to have a strong Android lineup, this may indicate that demand for Windows 8 tablets is even worse than expected – and it wasn’t very optimistic to begin with.

The gloomy figures were delivered by Asustek CFO David Chang during a shareholder meeting on Monday, but he also had a caveat. Chang pointed out that notebook and tablet shipments are poised to grow significantly in the third quarter, thanks to new product launches. Fourth quarter sales should remain flat, or see small gains. Despite the revised forecast, Chang said the company is on track to meet its original goal of shipping 20 to 25 million notebooks and 12 million tablets this year, reports Focus Taiwan.

Asustek CEO Jerry Shen also hinted at a strategic shift from PCs to tablets, which already make up 15 to 20 percent of the company’s revenue. By the second half of the year they might contribute between 20 and 30 percent, as the company managed to boost margins on tablets to a similar level to notebook margins. Shen said this was done by clever research and development, with a pinch of cost cutting.

Needless to say this is very good news for Asus, as the company already has a top notch Android tablet portfolio, from the low-end to its posh Transformer series. Cutting tablet production costs is also good news for Windows tablets in the long run, but they won’t do well this year.

Citi sees more gloom in PC market

pc-sales-slumpIt’s no secret that things are bad in all facets of the PC market and Citi Research believes things are about to get even worse. In a note to investors sent late Friday, the outfit revised its previous forecasts downward. It originally expected the PC market to contract 4 percent this year, but now it expects a 10-percent slide.

The dire predictions indicate that Windows 8.1 and Haswell won’t have much of an effect on overall shipments. It cited sub-seasonal demand in the first quarter and a slowdown in notebook production as contributing factors. Citi also noted that the benefits from Haswell and Windows Blue will be muted and that PC-end demand will remain soft. Computex didn’t help and emerging market aren’t coming to the rescue, either.

“We do not see any meaningful catalysts near-term supported by our product and company meetings at Computex in Taiwan last week which revealed a focus on convertible & higher-end Ultrabooks running Haswell, which addresses the smaller premium notebook market,” Citi said. “We also believe investors will be disappointed when they learn that low-priced touch-capable notebooks (sub-$600) will not be available to consumers until 4Q13.”

Citi forecasts notebook shipments of 179 million units this year, down from 201 million in 2012. Desktops are down as well, 137 million units vs. 148 million units last year. Meanwhile tablet shipments are expected to hit 237 million units, up from 144 million in 2012, reports CNET.

It gets worse. Citi says it previously modelled +2 percent growth year-on-year in PC shipments in 2014 and 2015. That figure has gone out the window.

“We now expect cannibalization from tablets…to more than offset any ‘stabilization’ in demand resulting from stretched replacement cycles or more compelling notebooks,” Citi said.

Compelling seems to be the key word in the PC industry, nowadays. There are no compelling new products or form factors, no compelling OS upgrade or compelling new features. PCs are becoming so mature that they are starting to resemble household appliances, with no apparent need to upgrade until they die.

IDC predicts more PC gloom

pc-sales-slumpIf you thought 2012 was a bad year for the PC industry, think again. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by 7.8 percent this year, according to the latest IDC forecast. The forecast can be summed up in a single trend – consumers aren’t upgrading their PC boxes because they’re saving cash for tablets and smartphones.

In fact, the outlook has been revised downwards. It was originally believed that the PC market would decline 1.3 percent in 2013, followed by a slight rebound. The new outlooks sees a 7.8 drop in 2013 and a 1.2 percent decline in 2014, with shipments recovering to 333 million units in 2017, still below the 349 million shipped last year and 363 million shipped in 2011.

It is hardly surprising, as even Intel executives are admitting that there is practically no incentive to upgrade at the moment. There is no compelling hardware and Microsoft hasn’t exactly done a brilliant job with Windows 8. The mature PC market is trying to put up a fight against the tablet onslaught and it is taking a beating.

“As the market develops, usage patterns and devices are evolving,” said Loren Loverde, Program Vice President, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC. “Many users are realizing that everyday computing, such as accessing the Web, connecting to social media, sending emails, as well as using a variety of apps, doesn’t require a lot of computing power or local storage. Instead, they are putting a premium on access from a variety of smaller devices with longer battery life, an instant-on function, and intuitive touch-centric interfaces. These users have not necessarily given up on PCs as a platform for computing when a more robust environment is needed, but this takes a smaller share of computing time, and users are making do with older systems.”

Things could pick up next year, as support for Windows XP expires and businesses rush to upgrade. However, the average consumer probably won’t rush to replace an old PC. The update cycle is getting longer and longer. Another worrying trend is the BYOD phenomenon, which allows users to use their own gear in the workplace, thus delaying and reducing the volume of corporate PC purchases.

One has to wonder what will happen to average selling prices and margins over the next couple of years. Businesses replacing turn of the century XP boxes will probably look for the cheapest possible solutions. At the same time, demand in mature markets will continue to decline for the foreseeable future, while demand in emerging markets should start to recover next year. Emerging markets also tend to prefer cheaper devices, which means the era of “goon enough” computing is here to stay.

The enthusiast market has always been a bastion for high-end component makers, but it seems to be running out of steam as well. New CPUs and GPUs don’t deliver huge performance gains seen in past generations, yet they’re getting pricier. Affordable 4K screens are still years away and new consoles are about to hit retail, disturbing the PC gaming landscape further.

European PC market cloudy

cloud 1Europe has seen a bleak view of the PC market with shipments falling by 20 percent year on year.

That’s the latest from Context, which said that the first quarter of 2013 saw the drop with the  steepest decrease occurring in Central and Eastern Europe.

The research company said these areas were most hit as a result of continued inventory weaknesses in Russia, which contributed to a decline of 23 percent for the region over the first quarter of this year compared to last year.

Russia itself saw PC shipments drop by 29.1 percent followed by Poland with a drop of 19.1 percent.

Over in Western Europe the picture wasn’t any brighter with figures showing a decline of 22 percent and almost every country registering double-digit falls including Spain at one end with a fall of 35.2 percent and the UK at the other with a drop of 16.6 percent.

The Middle East and Africa however, had a better quarter, with a lesser decrease of 11 percent recorded including Turkey where shipments fell by only two percent.

However, the future remains bleak with the company projecting a similar trend for Q213 with inventory continuing to be an issue in certain countries.

It said vendors were expected to act cautiously with their sell-in levels to avoid excess stock accumulations especially prior to the third quarter back to school period.

Windows 8 drags down PC sales

Windows-8The first quarter of 2013 was the worst for PC sales since 1994, IDC said.

In its Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, the company pointed the finger at Windows 8 disrupting the market amongst tough trading conditions, reporting that shipments totalled 76.3 million units in the first quarter of 2013, a decline of 13.9 percent compared to the same quarter in 2012.

The dismal figure was also even worse than the forecast decline of  percent 7.7 percent IDC had predicted, with the company adding the extent of the year-on-year contraction marked the worst quarter since it began tracking the PC market quarterly in 1994.

The results also marked the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year shipment declines.

Despite some mild improvement in the economic environment and some new PC models offering Windows 8, PC shipments were down significantly across all regions compared to a year ago.

IDC said fading Mini Notebook shipments had also taken a big chunk out of the low-end market while tablets and smartphones continued to divert consumer spending.

And it seems innovation has also hindered rather than helped the PC industry with IDC pointing out that efforts to offer touch capabilities and ultraslim systems have been hampered by traditional barriers of price and component supply, as well as a weak reception for Windows 8.

It added that the PC industry was struggling to identify innovations that made PCs stand out from other products and encourage people to buy.

The Windows 8 launch was blamed partly for the huge decline with Bob O’Donnell, IDC Programme  Vice President, Clients and Displays claiming it  not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but had also slowed down the market .

He said the “radical changes” to the UI including the absence of the Start button, plus the costs associated with touch had made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices.

“Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market,” he warned.

And other vendors have also been blamed with the restructuring and reorganisation efforts of HP and Dell claimed to have hampered the market.

In fact it seems only Lenovo has come out smelling of roses, with IDC claiming it continued to “execute on a solid “attack” strategy”,

It said to keep up with the rat race, vendors had to revisit their organisational structures and “go to market strategies” – whatever that means, as well as their supply chain, distribution, and product portfolios in the face of shrinking demand and looming consolidation.

And regionally there wasn’t better news. Across the pond, the United States contracting 12.7 percent year on year, with a drop of -18.3 percent for the first quarter of 2013 compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 and quarterly shipments reached their lowest level since the first quarter of 2006.

In Blighty and the EMEA region, the news remained bleak with IDC claiming that the area
posted a stronger double digit decline than anticipated in the first quarter of 2013.

Results fell short of expectations in the consumer segment as softness in demand persisted amid a continued shift to tablets and budget pressures. Meanwhile, the market response to Windows 8 and touch-enabled devices remains slow, leading to cautious “sell-in” from most vendors.

Japan fared a little bit better, with PC shipments in line with expectations in the first quarter. IDC said this was down to some economic improvement, which was helping to support commercial replacement demand ahead of the scheduled end of support for Windows XP next year.

However, consumer shipments remained very weak.

And Japan’s friends in the Asia/Pacific region didn’t have much to celebrate about with PC  shipments declining  sharply, dropping a record 12.7 percent.

IDC also pointed out that this was the first time the region had experienced a double digit decline. Although much of the earlier Windows 7 stock had cleared, a lukewarm reception toward Windows 8 hampered new shipments.

China’s inactivity contributed heavily to the decline, as public sector spending continued to be constrained.

HP remained the top vendor, but posted a substantial double digit decline in shipments after an aggressive fourth quarter kept growth flat during the holidays. HP’s worldwide shipments fell more than 23 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2013, with significant declines across all regions, as internal restructuring continued to affect commercial sales. Although HP maintained its leadership position in the United States, the company saw US shipments fall -22.9 percent from a year ago.

Lenovo remained second in global shipments and nearly closed the gap with HP, while Dell saw shipment decline by 10 percent globally and 14 percent in the United States. The vendor continued to face tough competition and struggled with customer uncertainty about the direction of its restructuring.

Apple fared better than the overall US market, but still saw shipments decline as its own PCs also face competition from iPads.